Categories
Pinboard

Reading: What’s the cost of acquiring herd immunity to Covid-19?

From What’s the cost of acquiring herd immunity to Covid-19?

hoakley works through the numbers on herd immunity without a vaccine in the UK. It’s not pretty. And the US officials know this.

[It] works out at a quarter of a million (246,400) fresh cases of Covid-19 per day on average, for a period of 100 days in England alone, to reach the HIT of 50% to provide herd immunity by natural infection.

We now need to work out the consequences of that sustained high rate of fresh cases. The percentage who require care in hospital varies widely with population, anything from 1-5% or more. That’s anything from 2,460 to over 12,000 cases each day.

The clincher is that herd immunity requires a vaccine to work:

That’s why society has invested so heavily in immunisation, which can produce herd immunity with almost no need for hospital care or death. But some seem hell-bent on putting the clock back to before 1770 and killing people when there’s a better way.

Models and references in hoakley’s post.

Categories
Pinboard

Reading: The WHO considers the WH’s decision not to control Covid-19

From The WHO considers the WH’s decision not to control Covid-19

As a counter-point to the WH’s false claim that it has ended the pandemic, sits the WHO’s latest consideration of the circumstances of the pandemic.

Ars, quoting White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, reports that the WH has given up:

“I mean, when we look at this, we’re going to defeat the virus. We’re not going to control it. We will try to contain it as best we can,” he told reporters outside the White House yesterday. He again emphasized the need for therapeutics and vaccines.

But here is WHO’s consideration of the implications of trump’s non-action:

[WHO Executive Director Michael Ryan] also offered a grim caution of what can happen when countries and governments do not try to control the virus. He noted that in April and March many places in the world, including some in the US, used “mitigation”—he used air quotes for this word—as their strategy and “emergency rooms were overwhelmed and we were rolling freezer trucks up to the back of hospitals,” he said. “That’s the reality of mitigating a disease in the face of a tsunami of cases. You run out of capacity to cope and that is the fear right now.”

These are not two different perspectives clashing; the WHO is drawing out implications that the WH refuses to consider.

Categories
Pinboard

Reading: Minnesota reports three Covid-19 outbreaks related to Trump campaign events in September – CNNPolitics

From Minnesota reports three Covid-19 outbreaks related to Trump campaign events in September – CNNPolitics

This is why we can’t shop at local businesses:

At least 21 cases have been traced to outbreaks occurring at rally events in Bemidji on September 18, a speech held by Vice President Mike Pence on September 24 in Minneapolis, and another rally held by President Donald Trump on September 30 in Duluth, the department said in an email to CNN.

Minnesota defines an outbreak as “two or more cases of illness related by time and place in which an epidemiologic investigation suggests either person-to-person transmission occurred” or some other vehicle, such as contaminated water, is implicated. Public health experts say it is difficult to pinpoint any one event to overall changes in trends in light of the fact that there is overall increased community transmission. But experts also agree that holding such events in this climate is not a best practice for public health.

Trump’s Bemidji rally took place in an airport hanger. According to a CNN producer who attended the event, at least 2,000 people were in attendance. Based on contact tracing by the state Department of Health, at least 16 cases, including two hospitalizations, were identified among attendees.

Categories
Pinboard

Reading: ‘Sue if you must’: Lincoln Project rejects threat over Kushner and Ivanka billboards

From ‘Sue if you must’: Lincoln Project rejects threat over Kushner and Ivanka billboards

Let’s see what happens when a group stands up to bullying.

On Friday, Marc Kasowitz, an attorney who has represented the president against allegations of fraud and sexual assault, wrote to the Lincoln Project, demanding the “false, malicious and defamatory” ads be removed, or “we will sue you for what will doubtless be enormous compensatory and punitive damages”.

The Lincoln Project responded that they would not remove the billboards, citing first amendment rights of free speech and the “reckless mismanagement of Covid-19” by the Trump White House.

In a legal response on Saturday night, attorney Matthew Sanderson told Kasowitz: “Please peddle your scare tactics elsewhere. The Lincoln Project will not be intimidated by such empty bluster … your clients are no longer Upper East Side socialites, able to sue at the slightest offense to their personal sensitivities.”

Categories
Pinboard

Reading: The COVID Reopening Disasters

From The COVID Reopening Disasters

This is not just a matter of rehashing old news. The rise of Covid infections at universities, as narrated in Acade, tells us a lot about what we’ve been doing wrong all summer.

Categories
Pinboard

Reading: The Risks – Know Them – Avoid Them

From The Risks – Know Them – Avoid Them

So now let’s get to the crux of it. Where are the personal dangers from reopening?

The personal is social.

As we move back to work, or go to a restaurant, let’s look at what can happen in those environments.

The crux:

The reason to highlight these different outbreaks is to show you the commonality of outbreaks of COVID-19. All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, outbreaks spread from shopping appear to be responsible for a small percentage of traced infections. (Ref)

Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections). (ref)

Via Academe Blog

Categories
Pinboard

Reading: Our Classrooms and Our Campuses Are Petri Dishes | ACADEME BLOG

From Our Classrooms and Our Campuses Are Petri Dishes | ACADEME BLOG

Martin Kich on Academe Blog considers the implications of re-opening univeristies – and what’s being over-looked by more vocal planners:

Mitch Daniels, the president of Purdue University and former governor of Indiana has announced his intention to have on-site classes in the fall, emphasizing that about 80% of the West Lafayette community is under the age of 35 and therefore less vulnerable. It seems very improbable, however, that 80% of the university’s faculty and staff are under the age of 35 or that having a large number of asymptomatic carriers of the virus will be reassuring to anyone in the community who is over 35 or living with someone over 35.

If continuing to do most classes online is deemed untenable even for another semester or two, how tenable will it be if even one in three faculty at any university contracts the virus and has to be self-quarantined for several weeks?

How tenable will it be if even one in six faculty have a more severe form of the disease or even have to be hospitalized for treatment and need to be on medical leave for more than two weeks?

How tenable will it be if even a small number of faculty die from the disease?

Add to this the factor that the disease can spread between town and gown by asymptotic carriers and the risk becomes even less tenable. MinnState: take note, please.