Reading: Donald Trump’s failure to work with Joe Biden is becoming more urgent as Covid spreads – CNNPolitics

From Donald Trump’s failure to work with Joe Biden is becoming more urgent as Covid spreads – CNNPolitics

It’s all occuring on trump’s watch – both vaccine and continuing crisis.

The increasingly urgent pleas are coming from inside his administration, the President-elect’s team and independent public health experts as Covid-19 cases rage out of control countrywide, claiming more than 1,000 US lives a day. More than 246,000 Americans have now died from the disease, and a bitter winter lies ahead even amid encouraging news such as Monday’s announcement that a vaccine developed by Moderna is demonstrating a high success rate in early clinical trials, the second such positive vaccine news in about a week.

But instead of listening or mobilizing to tackle what some medical experts warn is becoming a “humanitarian” crisis, Trump spent the weekend during which the US passed 11 million infections amplifying lies and misinformation about his election loss. At one point, he appeared to acknowledge Sunday in a tweet that Biden won, before backtracking with a stream of defiance on Twitter.


Reading: Alfred Ready for Apple’s M1 Chip

From Alfred Ready for Apple’s M1 Chip


Reading: Four Seasons Total Landscaping Is a Perfect Trump Backdrop

From Four Seasons Total Landscaping Is a Perfect Trump Backdrop

via Daring Fireball. I love the scent of irony in the morning.

The photos that emerged from the event had the tawdriness of America’s worst cityscapes and the richness of an allegorical painting. The sound system’s snarl of cables lay sloppily piled on the asphalt, the emblem of every garbled message. A Sunoco sign presided over the end of an administration desperately addicted to fossil fuels. Windows covered in blackout shades and bars recalled ICE detention centers. A rusting steel scaffold appeared to be propping up the whole derelict structure. And at the center of it all, a small man behind a cheap lectern trying to persuade a tired nation that this gimcrack spectacle must never shut down.


Reading: Elation and Anger: Catharsis in the streets

From Elation and Anger: Catharsis in the streets

> For many, Nov. 7 at 11:25 a.m., became a moment of such historic magnitude that they say they will forever remember what they were doing, even those engaged in the most mundane weekend activities.


Reading: Opinion | His spell is breaking. – The Washington Post

From Opinion | His spell is breaking. – The Washington Post

> While suggesting that Democrats “can try to steal the election from us” and that “our numbers started miraculously getting whittled away in secret,” the president sounded bored rather than enraged.

Appearing in person ought to have put more visceral force behind Trump’s charges; his in-person statement did the opposite. His delivery lacked the all-caps, exclamation-marked energy of his Twitter broadsides. The effect was to undercut the incendiary allegations Trump was making. He was a man checking a box, not one fighting for his political life.

And while Trump was speaking, something rather extraordinary happened: Three major broadcast networks stopped airing the president’s address live.


Reading: Why Joe Biden is Going to Win – Kendall’s Newsletter

From Why Joe Biden is Going to Win – Kendall’s Newsletter

Via John Gruber. Kendall Kaut’s 31 Oct analysis is not only sane and measured but (!!) invoked a sane and measure discussion afterwards. Restores faith in people.

We’ll start with Biden’s lead in polling—both state, national and why fewer undecideds than 2020 matters—and why you should trust the numbers. Then we’ll look at how Biden’s been a much better candidate/how Trump’s failed to define Biden negatively. Finally, we’ll close with how Biden hasn’t faced a “Comey Letter” and the Hunter Biden news hasn’t resonated.

Then we’ll turn to the arguments for Trump. We’ll dispense with the “Shy Trump” theory. And we’ll discuss the Trafalgar poll, and why it’s not anywhere close to what Trump’s supporters believe. Then we’ll look at why the “Who you think will win?” question doesn’t have much predictive power. After that we’ll deal with “The GOP has registered more voters in certain states” being irrelevant when Biden’s winning more Trump voters than Trump’s winning Clinton voters. Then we’ll look at why Trump’s gains with non-white voters aren’t enough because there are more white voters that Biden has flipped. I’ll also address why Trump can’t rely on getting even more white non-college folks than last time because polling doesn’t show it. I’ll also address why the “Trump/the Supreme Court/the GOP steals the election” doesn’t work with Biden’s lead.


Reading: What’s the cost of acquiring herd immunity to Covid-19?

From What’s the cost of acquiring herd immunity to Covid-19?

hoakley works through the numbers on herd immunity without a vaccine in the UK. It’s not pretty. And the US officials know this.

[It] works out at a quarter of a million (246,400) fresh cases of Covid-19 per day on average, for a period of 100 days in England alone, to reach the HIT of 50% to provide herd immunity by natural infection.

We now need to work out the consequences of that sustained high rate of fresh cases. The percentage who require care in hospital varies widely with population, anything from 1-5% or more. That’s anything from 2,460 to over 12,000 cases each day.

The clincher is that herd immunity requires a vaccine to work:

That’s why society has invested so heavily in immunisation, which can produce herd immunity with almost no need for hospital care or death. But some seem hell-bent on putting the clock back to before 1770 and killing people when there’s a better way.

Models and references in hoakley’s post.


Reading: Health officials rated celebrities on Trump loyalty while planning ad campaign

From Health officials rated celebrities on Trump loyalty while planning ad campaign

It’s a sad day for the despot when he can’t get B-list celebs to sponsor his propeganda.

Despite the hefty funding, the campaign has been stymied by internal disorganization and indifference from celebrities. Of the ten deemed worthy of the PSAs, only three sat down for interviews. As of October 1, all three had withdrawn their consent to use the footage and refused to participate further. The campaign’s future was further imperiled by Caputo’s decision last month to take a leave of absence from the department.


Reading: gdp report factcheck

From gdp report factcheck

> It’s true that third-quarter growth was the fastest on record in data going back to 1947. (See the full data set here.) But celebrating that number is like telling only half the story.
It’s impossible to ignore what happened immediately leading up to those gains: The US economy declined at a 31.4% annual rate — the deepest downturn on record.

A big reason the US posted record GDP this quarter is because there was a record decline in the prior quarter.

When you step back and look at that broader context, the US economy is still operating well below its pre-pandemic peak. Gross domestic product is still $670 billion lower than where it was at the end of 2019. The chart below tells that story more clearly than any words can. (See the full data here.)


Reading: The WHO considers the WH’s decision not to control Covid-19

From The WHO considers the WH’s decision not to control Covid-19

As a counter-point to the WH’s false claim that it has ended the pandemic, sits the WHO’s latest consideration of the circumstances of the pandemic.

Ars, quoting White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, reports that the WH has given up:

“I mean, when we look at this, we’re going to defeat the virus. We’re not going to control it. We will try to contain it as best we can,” he told reporters outside the White House yesterday. He again emphasized the need for therapeutics and vaccines.

But here is WHO’s consideration of the implications of trump’s non-action:

[WHO Executive Director Michael Ryan] also offered a grim caution of what can happen when countries and governments do not try to control the virus. He noted that in April and March many places in the world, including some in the US, used “mitigation”—he used air quotes for this word—as their strategy and “emergency rooms were overwhelmed and we were rolling freezer trucks up to the back of hospitals,” he said. “That’s the reality of mitigating a disease in the face of a tsunami of cases. You run out of capacity to cope and that is the fear right now.”

These are not two different perspectives clashing; the WHO is drawing out implications that the WH refuses to consider.