Via John Gruber. Kendall Kaut’s 31 Oct analysis is not only sane and measured but (!!) invoked a sane and measure discussion afterwards. Restores faith in people.
We’ll start with Biden’s lead in polling—both state, national and why fewer undecideds than 2020 matters—and why you should trust the numbers. Then we’ll look at how Biden’s been a much better candidate/how Trump’s failed to define Biden negatively. Finally, we’ll close with how Biden hasn’t faced a “Comey Letter” and the Hunter Biden news hasn’t resonated.
Then we’ll turn to the arguments for Trump. We’ll dispense with the “Shy Trump” theory. And we’ll discuss the Trafalgar poll, and why it’s not anywhere close to what Trump’s supporters believe. Then we’ll look at why the “Who you think will win?” question doesn’t have much predictive power. After that we’ll deal with “The GOP has registered more voters in certain states” being irrelevant when Biden’s winning more Trump voters than Trump’s winning Clinton voters. Then we’ll look at why Trump’s gains with non-white voters aren’t enough because there are more white voters that Biden has flipped. I’ll also address why Trump can’t rely on getting even more white non-college folks than last time because polling doesn’t show it. I’ll also address why the “Trump/the Supreme Court/the GOP steals the election” doesn’t work with Biden’s lead.